It looks like the Dow will reach 14K, indicating signals of an almost definite pullback in the near future. I believe we will see 14K before we see 12K or 13K, but I think we may pull back all the way down to the 12k level if this bubble bursts and people panic and scramble to the exits. The economic news, strength of the dollar, and housing numbers do not indicate that the stock market should rally much higher, yet it continually does. It is like the market has a brain of its own now and does not care about the numbers. Bernake's obsession with inflation and possible rate hikes does not help the investor either. Either way, investors can make money. Stay long on stocks until you see signs of a real correction, and get ready to invest in ETFs that play the short side such as QID and SDS so that you do not have to sit on the sidelines idle during a bearish trend.
As for the CNBC contest, I managed a portfolio based on the MGR Coefficient. I did as well as holding a position in the top 3%, and it looks like I will end the contest in the top 6%. I believe this shows more evidence of the strength of the rating system, since it was able to defeat 94% of the portfolios in the contest. The total number of contestants actually reached a half a million portfolios, which goes to show how many people are involved in the stock market these days. With so much competition out there, investors need to stay focused and keep their eyes on the prize.
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