Friday, July 27, 2007

INVEST IN GREAT MINDS

Many investors either look at fundamentals or technicals, but what is also very important is the management of a company. And if the company is a bio tech company, than the scientific advisory board is also very crucial. Case in point, CYTR and CBMX. Both companies are full of very smart individuals who have done nothing but good in their professional careers. Both are companies with great business models, and combined with the great scientific advisory boards they have, both will prove to be great investments in the long term.

Friday, July 13, 2007

HERE COMES 14K AGAIN

Looks like the Dow is heading towards 14,000 as previously predicted and in such a run-away bull market, it is wise to buy hand over fist right now. Cramer also wisely pointed out that stocks in this type of market go from 80-100 and do not look back all the way to 120. Winners keep winning in this market. I think this is the last leg of a super bull market, and afterwards we can see a bubble similar to the tech bubble. Buy the following:

SUNH
CYTR
NVEC

Tuesday, July 3, 2007

A 20 dollar bill on sale for 15 bucks, Guaranteed!!!

That's right, we have found a way to buy $20's for $15. Our next triple digit gainer is Sun Healthcare, Nasdaq symbol: SUNH.

This is a name that had its initial debut on our blog in May when it was ~ $14 per share, it has risen close to 10% since then, but the stock's run is far from over.

This nursing home operator is poised to go to $24 by the end of the year and it seems that the heavy institutional buying recently will move it to that price target rather quickly. Amid recent news regarding the private equity buyout of Manor Care-HCR, the sector valuations are going through a readjustment. Approximately one year ago, another nursing home operator was also taken out by private equity and that company was Beverly Enterprises-BEV. Both buyouts of HCR and BEV have established a price for longterm care facilities. Based on these valuations paid by private equity, the price of SUNH based on the number of its licensed beds and revenue should fairy value SUNH in the 20 dollar range per share. The upper limit of the stock being $32 per share and lower target of $24 per share.

In addition, technically, SUNH is coming out of a 3 year cup with handle base, which could add fuel to fire. But regardless of the technicals, SUNH is worth $24 per share and it should reach that target by years end. Also, since SUNH is a nursing home that is not levered to the general economy, it makes it a perfect play for the uncertain times we are in right now. With the subprime/housing mess on one side and global political risk rampant, owning SUNH is a good way to stay long the market while having the potential for huge upside due to the favorable trends of aging baby boomer's.

I don't feel that SUNH is a good buyout candidate by private equity, as stated in Wall Street Journal this week, due to the fact that it only owns 40% of it operational real estate. However, there is a good chance that it might be taken private because it is one of the last remaining large nursing home operators. The other nursing home operator that is a good buyout candidate is Kindred Healthcare, NYSE symbol: KND. Kinderd Healthcare is the largest remaining public nursing home operator and there is more. Its number one institutional holder, Franklin Mutual Advisers, which owns about 19% of the outstanding shares, was one of the key players that took Beverly Enterprises private. So, it seems that they have similar plans for KND, as they have been increasing their position in KND. Both KND and SUNH are the last two major longterm care facilities that are public, so if you are private equity looking for favorable long term trends in the aging of baby boomer's, there are only two players left.

In conclusion, if you missed our last triple digit gainer, CLRK, it's not too late to make some $$, buy SUNH.

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

STOCKS STOCKS AND MORE STOCKS

GRMN keeps hitting new 52 wk highs, and this one looks like it can lead us through a bad market as it has been performing well while the markets have been getting beat up. Most importantly, this stock was graded as the #1 stock on the MGR Coefficient when it was $58, now $73.75 and still going strong. I would not be surprised to see this stock trading at $85 by the end of this year.

Also on a general note, it looks like playing stocks in the Nasdaq (SUNH, UCTT, CYTR, NVEC) is the safest bet as this is the most oversold index, especially on a long term basis.

Here is a description of these stocks:

NVEC - This company has patents and technology that can propel it and destroy the competition in the coming years. Trading at about $32, this stock is a good buy.

CYTR - RNA is the "new thing" in science, and a huge breakthrough. When I was in college, I was taught RNA was not too important, and now the opposite is true. CYTR's board of scientists/doctors is led by Craig Cameron Mello. He is one of the laureates of the 2006 Nobel Prize for Physiology/Medicine (the other laureate was Andrew Z. Fire), for the discovery of RNA interference. This information was obtained from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craig_C._Mello where more can be found about Dr. Mello.

SUNH & UCTT - descriptions can be found in recent blogs

Friday, June 22, 2007

TWO THUMPS UP

In these crazy markets, there are only two stocks that I can really give "two thumbs up": SUNH and UCTT.

SUNH should pop soon as the institutions will be moving into low-beta and non-cyclical industries to be safe from a weakening economy and stock market.

UCTT should pop soon because Intel got upgraded last week, AMD upgraded this week, and the SMH (semi-conductor holders) hit a 52 wk high this week. This is all really good news for UCTT and I think it is coiling like a spring right now and getting ready to pop.

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

CLRK GETS BOUGHT OUT!!!

As perfectly predicted by Darwinian, not only did CLRK move from $17 in March 07 to $34. That is a 100% move in 3 months!!! CLRK was initially moving on institutional buying in the last several weeks, and now has been bought out by Phillips for $34 a share.

Friday, June 15, 2007

THE RAGING BULL....OR IS IT???

It looks like we are now possibly back into the realm of the bull market. Like Darwinian was saying, there were still too many bears last week where the "end" of the bull market had supposedly come. However, what is evident is that usually at any real stock market top there should be really no bears and everyone should be thinking we are still going higher. Now with this recent turn around, even those bears will have to turn into bulls because they have already missed a great run and would not want to miss anymore of it. Once this happens I believe we can go to 14,400 on the Dow, and the next decline will probably be the one that breaks the bull's back all the way down to 12,800.